Dusty Says

There’s nothing to be said. Al has said enough. Go read his game review, I am too demoralized to review the past two games.

Game review.

Some team notes:

Jason Dubois was traded to the Indians, and has been 1-11 with five strikeouts with them, so far. We got Jody Gerut in return. He was 0-4 in last night’s game, playing RF and leading off.

Scott Williamson was assigned to AAA Iowa to begin his rehab stint. He pitched a scoreless inning last night in relief of Rich Hill.

Michael Barrett has an eight game hitting streak.

Kerry Wood will miss a start after leaving yesterday’s game with a shoulder stiffness. He is not expected to miss more than a start. Though, it’s not like it wasn’t expected. No one has said it better than this guy.

I’m too angry to keep typing.

It was over before you could say “five game winning streak halted.” Zach Duke, the Star Starter of the Pirates, did as asked and held the Cubs defenseless through eight innings and shut them out, 3-0.

The Cubs wasted an stellar outing by righty Greg Maddux, who went eight innings, allowing five hits and three runs, only two earned, with just one walk and six strikeouts. Maddux, coming off his best outing of the year, delivered (what?) his second best of the year today, though rookie Duke went an even better eight innings on six hits and no runs earned, walking two and striking out four. This win (his record stands now at 2-0) brought his already low ERA before the outing down to the 1.20’s, standing after the game at 1.23.

Perhaps the key to the game was a little fact that I like to call don’t ground out when men are on base. See for yourself:

FIELDING
DP: 4 (Wilson, J-Ward, Mackowiak-Castillo-Ward, Wilson, J-Castillo-Ward 2).

The Cubs grounded out four times into double plays. Most of them were by the same infielders. They didn’t even get creative when grounding out!

Agh, after all that shit, the Pirates turned to Jose Mesa. As you might remember from a month or so ago, we own Mesa. Two blown saves in a row against us. Anyway, the Cubs started the ninth pretty nice, with Todd Walker hitting a single. Then, they got an out before Ben Grieve hit another one, and so the things stand at men on second and first with one out. A rally, you say? Tell that to Aramis Ramirez. He flied out. Oh well, he can’t be always the hero. Time for Beernitz to earn his five million dollars. Wha-what? A groundout in the first pitch? That’s the Cubs! Get used. Three outs, game over.

But it’s all okay. We’ll rebound tomorrow.

In site news, I posted an article in the forgotten Minors Report about Felix Pie. It’s pretty interesting, give it a read.

Bleed Cubbie Blue featured this great article on the Cubs’s odds of making it to the postseason. Hope over all numbers, here is it. Thanks Shawn for letting me borrow it.

Diclaimer: This post is not only long, it is intentionally optimistic. I’m doing everything i can to the numbers to see how its possible for the Cubs to make the playoffs. That said, you should still feel free to fire away your critiques!

I decided to go into a statistical analysis of what the Cubs need to do in the 2nd half of the season to make the playoffs (or, more accurately, the remaining 75/162nds of the season). I made all these calculations based on data from ESPN’s RPI rankings page, The Cubs’ remaining schedule, and 2004 and 2005 win shares from The Harball Times.

Lets start by assuming the Cubs play just as they did in the first half of the year. On first approximation, that would mean a repeat of the first half record-wise. They have gone 43-44, a win rate of .494. If they continued to win games at this rate, they would win 37 more games for a final record of 80-82, a touch under .500 and well out of playoff contention.

However, win-loss records are a worse predictor of what a team will do the remainder of the season than their runs scored and runs against are. Based on the number of runs the Cubs have scored and have given up, they should win half of their remaining games (37.5 wins). Given that they’ve been a half game “unlucky” thus far, lets assume regression to the mean gives them the extra half win, giving them 38 “second-half” wins for a final record of 81-81, right at .500.

I wanted to go into a little more detail, since even the runs scored and runs against do not take into account that the Cubs have played through the toughest half of their schedule. Their strength of schedule (SOS, the cumulative win rate of all the teams played thus far, weighted by games played) is .504. The strength of the remainder of the schedule (the cumulative win rate of all teams left to play, weighted by games) is .493. We are left to figure out how many wins can the Cubs expect out of the easier schedule. Lets do this based on RPI. The Cubs current Relative Power Index (RPI) is .502. RPI is a weighted average of a team’s win rate (25%), its opponents’ win rate, i.e. a team’s SOS (50%), and its opponents’ opponents’ win rate, i.e. a team’s opponents’ SOS (25%). If we assume that the Cubs’ RPI will remain constant (the starting assumption), as will their opponents’ SOS’s (the lazy, i don’t want to do any more work assumption), then we can calculate what the team’s win rate the remainder of the season will be, based on the strength of their remaining schedule. You can even do this team-by-team, if you wish. The results are a prediction that the Cubs will go 4-10 against the Cardinals (blech!), and 36-24 against everyone else, piling up 40 more wins for a final record of 83-79, just above .500 and almost certainly out of the playoffs. If you repeat all of this using expected W-L records based on runs scored and allowed to calculate SOS, the results are similar: 39 more wins the rest of the season for a final record of 82-80.

Now, all this is based on what the Cubs did in the first half. I’m not going to make predictions of any changes in performance from individuals in the second half, but in the interests of looking for a best-case scenario, i will now see how much change we can expect from recent or near future additions to the roster. In other words, i will see what impacts a healthy roster and some major Jim Hendry acquisitions could have on the second “half” of the season…

First, lets assume we get a healthy second half from Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Scott Williamson and Nomar Garciaparra, as well as a full second half from Jerome Williams. Next, lets assume that the players they are replacing are average bench players (on average, they basically are). Then, lets use win shares above bench (WSAB) to calculate the wins they will add to the club remainder of the season (an explanation of win shares is here). We’ll do this based on this year’s WSAB or on last year’s WSAB, based on which is more appropriate (this is admittedly arbitrary, and i mostly use last year’s for the sake of sample size and to avoid bad 1st half numbers that are the result of injury/soreness. If someone has career WSAB numbers, i’d be happy to recalculate things based on those). In order to account for having only 75 games left on the schedule, we’ll prorate WSAB by number of starts/appearances. Then, we subtract the WSAB earned in the first half from what we can expect in the second half, and we’ll get the expected improvement in the Cubs’ record from adding these guys to the roster, in units of win shares. Got all that? If not, follow along with the following example for adding Kerry Wood to the roster:

In the first half, Kerry earned 0 WSAB, so any win shares he earns in the second half are gravy. Based on last year’s win shares, Kerry Wood earned 2 WSAB. He did that in 22 starts, a rate of 0.09 WSABs/start. If he gets 15 starts the rest of the year (75 games/5 games per start=15 starts), then we can expect about (2/22)*(15)=1.36 WSAB from Kerry the rest of the way. Subtract the 0 WSAB Kerry earned in the 1st half, and our record should improve by 1.36 win shares in the second half. In order to convert win shares to wins, you divide by 3, so the Cubs can expect about .45 more wins the rest of the year due to having a healthy Wood.

The remainder of the additional win shares resulting from additions that have already happened or we can count on happening in the near future are as follows…

Prior: 1 extra win share (Note: Prior had enough starts for me to feel comfortable using this year’s WSAB data, as he had 12 starts, just short of the 17 we’d expect).
Garciaparra: 3.36 extra win shares (this large number is partly due to Nomar’s WSAB rate last year, and partly due to the -2 WSAB he “earned” in his early season slump. Also note i used 58 games for Nomar, assuming an August 1 return date).
J. Williams: 1.5 win shares (Note: I again used this year’s win shares for Williams, as he seems to have fixed the weight issues he has had in the past so i felt this year’s numbers would be best).
S. Williamson: 1.36 extra win shares (Note: i used 19 appearances the rest of the year, assuming an August 1 return date and an appearance every 3rd day).

The total for all these changes is an additional 8.58 win shares. Before you get too excited, remember you have to divide by 3 to convert win shares to wins. This means we can expect about another 2.86 (call it 3) wins for the Cubs in the second half. If you add this to the most optimistic projections above, that leaves us with a final record of 86-76. That’s a solid season, but i’m not sure if it gets us a playoff spot.

I’m thinking we would need over 90 wins to get to the postseason. That means we would need to add another 5 wins, or 15 WSABs to our roster. Lets look at WSABs for players in the first half, and consider adding two OF bats and a reliever. Lets go all out and assume what is in my opinion the best case scenario - that we add a power OF bat, a leadoff OF bat, and a setup man. Specifically, if we add Adam Dunn, Matt Lawton, and Mike Gonzalez (i told you this was best-case), that would give us an additional 15 win shares, or 5 more wins. That would bring the season record to 91-71, probably good enough for a playoff spot.

It looks like we can make the plaoffs. However, in order to get there, the Cubs will have to stay healthy, and Hendry will have to make a couple major moves.

Of course, if we just do better than 4-10 against the Cardinals, then we woudn’t need all the fancy win share math to show how we can make the playoffs. Reversing that and going 10-4 against them would leave us with 89 wins instead of 83, and at that point we’d be close to a playoff spot without any major moves.

You can comment here.

Greg Maddux fanned six, raising his career total to 2,994 strikeouts. (Charles Rex Arbogast/AP)

As I told you yesterday afternoon, the MOR usually enhance Neifi!’s daygame hitting abilities; today wasn’t the exception, as he went 3-2 with a whopping two RBIs, but the most important thing is that the Cubs won again, their fifth straight, 11-1 to the Pirates.

It wasn’t all Neifi!, though. Sometimes, the MOR decide that it’s time for anyone else to power up a win. Today it was, of all people, Jerry Hairston, Jr; he laced a line drive homerun of the grand slam kind, to break open a game that was already, well, dominated. Let’s face it, we are having a great second half so far but this team are the Pirates. The Pirates. They’re not bad, of course not, but they aren’t exactly a team I’d like to test our weaknesses and powerness against; tomorrow, they’ll bring out Zach Duke, their supposed Star Starter who’s going to save them in a future in which all Oliver Perez, Jon Van Benschoten, Kip Wells and him become healthy.

Back to today’s game. It wasn’t a one man show, as Kerry Wood pitched his best game of the season, based solely on the fact that he didn’t walk anybody. In fact, the Cubs just allowed one baserunner via the walk, and it was Mr. BB/SO himself, Michael Wuertz. This time, he didn’t strikeout anybody, though. I can’t complain, the Cubs’ bullpen had a decent run, allowing only two hits and a walk in three innings of work by Wuertz, Reverse Split Mike Remlinger and Glendon Rusch (who finally settled down in his new job.); Kerry also struck out five batters and allowed two hits, including a homerun by Jose Castillo, his seventh.

Wood hit a two run double to help his own pitching. Aramis Ramirez also added a three run homerun in the third against Josh Fogg. But it wasn’t him who was in the spotlight today. We, finally, have a leadoff hitter. And it only took us three months to find him. Plus, if he can hit grand slams, what’s the rush in selling the prospects to adquire a speedy, OBP based leadoff guy? Let him get used to his role and see. Wait and see.

Another thing I noticed in today’s game was that all our pinch hitters, except Matt Murton, suceeded in their tasks; Ronny, Jose and Ben laced hits.

I wasn’t able to post a game preview, as promised, but tomorrow I will.

Aramis Ramirez smacks a three-run homer in the third inning. (Jeff Roberson/AP)

It was a day game at Wrigley.

As you should know by now, the monsters of Wrigley (MOR) usually pull a Remlinger, and appear at noon to enhance our Daylight Powered Players (DPP) Neifi! and Henry Blanco. Yes, that Neifi! of the .290 daygame batting average, and our backup catcher made a 5-1 win over the Pirates possible today, in a game that Mark Prior delivered his best performance of the year, serving up 115 pitches, allowing just two hits in his eight inning masterpiece, also striking out ten and walking three. Mark had a shaky first inning but recovered in time to strikeout the side. He proceeded to work quickly in all remaining innings, except the third when two errors cost him an unearned run; the Cubs got back in the game in the bottom part of the same inning, scoring runs on a lot of Wild Mark Redman’s (4.0 IP, 8 H, 5 ER) mistake pitches (two run homerun by Todd Walker), misplayed balls, wildpitches (including three in favor of the Cubs just today!), slap hits and towering shots by Blanco and Neifi! that could have been homeruns if only the wind had been blowing out; either way, those shots kept the innings alive and good for our bottom hitters including Prior, who went 2-3 with an RBI.

So yes, we have a four game winning streak right now going. Great. And, as a guy pointed out in the Para chat today, only the Cubs can go 8-8 in a sixteen game stretch, including an eight game losing streak. Oh well.

It was a good game for the Cubs all around, even in the ninth inning, when Redster replaced Prior and walked the first batter, just to be followed by another error that left men on first and second. Redster got an out, and then a good 6-4-3 doubleplay ended the game.

Matt Murton had a shaky first game at home, barely seeing no pitches and grounding out to second twice. He, though, made some fanatics in the left field bleachers by giving away a single fly ball.

Tomorrow it’ll be Kerry Wood against Josh Fogg; let’s sweep the Pirates so we can extend this baby winning streak. Expect a game preview before the confrontation, a new feature of your DustySays enhanced weblog, whose actual enhanced features should be posted anytime soon.

If you click on the Henry Blanco link above in the second paragraph, you shall enter his Baseball Cube profile. Look at who sponsors the site. Then, view Henry’s batting average through his career. Weird stuff.

Mark Prior delivers a pitch during his best game of the year, so far.

But tonight, with a lack of time in my hands, all I will post is that we’re back on track, winning two from a fellow contender (yes, this season is still active — don’t lose hope.) with Z and Wood earning wins; also, Lee hitting homeruns, Jose Macías hitting two run doubles and Jerry Hairston driving home six runs in a week; ain’t everything normal?

I’ll be back next week, with a detailed expression of my thoughts about our team and its lovable ways of making us feel good after an eight game losing streak.

Before the game, our Dear Manager left us a pretty good feeling in the heart, after saying that Prior wasn’t 100% healthy and that we shouldn’t be expecting a brilliant outing from him…

Well, there was some truth and some false information in what he said. He is, indeed, not completely healthy; though, even with his offspeed stuff not being at his personal best, he managed to pull a one hit, three strikeout, no walk, six inning performance, in stellar way to beat the White Sox again, two to zero; by the way that made us win the series and on the road.

The whole team was completely clicking for the second day in a row; even with the fielders dealing with the weird features of US Cellular Field, all balls that were hit, seemed to fall just into their gloves. Korey Patterson hit a solo homerun (his eleventh, all solos.) and most likely bought himself more time in the leadoff spot. I shall give the edge to Korey on this one, though. He did hit a homerun that felt game-winning, that helped Prior forge his victory, of course with the strong confidence thoughts myself and every Cubs fanatic in the nation, let alone the world, sent him. He was throwing a great fastball that, according to Sportsline, reached 95mph a couple of times (especially on a strikeout ball to Aaron Rowand — thing of beauty.) and a well located, well placed two seamer that combined with a lot of breaking stuff that traveled in the mid eighties — his slider, though, as noted by fellow blogger John Hill and most of the guys at the Parachat (join us every game! you’ll love it.) was looking a little weird, but nothing to worry about. He lowered his ERA to a pretty good 2.66 for the season and had the first one hit performance of his career.

Anyway, I’m forgetting the real good play in this game. The Cubs finally forgot how to hit homeruns and decided to switch to Ozzieb– eh, Smartb– sorry, small play and had a nifty inning in which they scored the second run. The inning was as follows:

SMALL PLAY 101

a) Take advantage of the free bases the rival team gives you.
Burnitz safe at first on fielding error.
b) Bunt. Bunt. Bunt. Or steal bases, it doesn’t matter how but get an extra base.
Burnitz stole second
c) Even if you fail, don’t lose hope and start looking for pitcher mistakes.
Ramirez struck out swinging
Burnitz to third on wild pitch
d) Make contact. A lot of it, no matter if it’s a popup or the occasional groundout. Score any way you can. Sacrifice flies are valid. Always.
Walker hit sacrifice fly to right, Burnitz scored

And that, my friend, is how the Cubs managed to pull their second run.

The bullpen was great again, two days in a row that they’ve pulled brilliant performances: The likely fifth spot holder JeroWilliams had eventful two innings, in which he managed to get out of self-imposed jams (walks, HBP.) with great plays; Redster came in the ninth and walked a batter, just before he managed to get his second consecutive save opportunity in which he forces a hitter to ground into an easy double play.

Thus, Mark Prior won. Jon Garland, who pulled a great performance, too, lost. They stand as two of the best young players around, even if Jon had no track record of brilliance until this year. Fluke? We will see that later.

So, enjoy the evening. Go out. Celebrate. Stay home and watch the Subway Series; the Cubs just did their part and offered us one great showcase of good baseball.